Hey folks, as someone who’s weathered in crypto cycles, I can feel that familiar electricity in the air. It’s like the night before a bull run Christmas – and all signs point to the biggest Crypto Bull Run of 2025 kicking off tomorrow. In this edition of our casual crypto newsletter, I’ll break down why Bitcoin and Ethereum might be on the verge of a explosive rally, focusing on the hard data (think RSI, MACD, on-chain stats, funding rates) and a pinch of market buzz. Let’s dive into the signals that matter right now.

Technical Indicators Are Flashing Green

When I scroll through Bitcoin’s charts today, it’s a sea of bullish indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) – a key momentum gauge – is confirming strength without screaming “overbought.” On the daily/weekly timeframe, BTC’s RSI is above the neutral 50 level but still below classic overbought territory, giving the price “room to run” before any cooling off​. In fact, on shorter timeframes like the 4-hour, Bitcoin’s RSI recently hit 68, just shy of that 70+ zone that often precedes pullbacks. This tells me the momentum is strong but not exhausted – an ideal combo for a continued uptrend.

Likewise, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), another old buddy of mine, just put in a bullish crossover on Bitcoin’s chart​. Translation: the trend’s bias is shifting upward as the MACD line crosses above the signal line, something we haven’t seen in a while. Ethereum’s technicals are mirroring Bitcoin’s glow-up too.

Ether’s RSI is hovering in the high 60s and its own MACD flipped bullish on April 30, indicating Ether’s engine is revving alongside Bitcoin’s. Even better, both BTC and ETH prices have pushed above key moving averages (like the famous 200-day MA), confirming a positive trend structure. As a chartist at heart, I see these signals and get a bit giddy – it’s like seeing all green lights on a road trip.

And let’s not forget good ol’ chart patterns. Recent analyses note that Bitcoin broke out of a months-long falling wedge pattern earlier this month, a historically bullish setup. With BTC now eyeing the psychological $100K level just overhead, the stage is set for high drama. If Bitcoin decisively clears six figures, technical targets in the ~$107K range come into play based on the wedge’s measured move. In plainer terms: the upside potential is significant if bulls press their advantage.

So in summary: momentum oscillators like RSI/MACD are on bull mode, price action is breaking out of its shell, and the trend is your friend (for now). But that’s just the surface. The real conviction comes from what’s happening under the hood, in the blockchain data.

On-Chain Metrics Back the Bull Thesis

I’ve always said, “price can lie in the short term, but on-chain data doesn’t bluff.” Right now, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s network stats are painting a decidedly bullish picture. For one, active addresses – a proxy for network activity – are surging. Bitcoin’s active wallet count jumped roughly 12-15% over the past week or so, topping about 1.2 million active addresses​. Ethereum is in the same boat, with active addresses reaching 1.2 million on April 30, up 15% week-over-week. More active users often means more demand brewing, which can foreshadow price gains.

Additionally, investors big and small are hoarding rather than selling. Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin exchange inflows dropped from ~22,000 BTC to 18,500 BTC day-over-day – meaning fewer people are sending coins to exchanges (often a sign of intent to sell). In fact, more BTC is flowing out of exchanges than in, a classic precursor to price rallies as supply tightens.

I’m seeing similar behavior with Ether: staking deposits have climbed (Lido Finance reports ETH staked up 9% to 32.5M ETH), and a healthy 62% of ETH addresses are now in profit at current prices. When most holders are in the green and still choosing to stake or hold, it tells me confidence is high and folks aren’t rushing for the exit – another bullish underpinning.

Even the whales (those crypto one-percenters) are giving a nod of approval. Large Bitcoin holders are growing; the number of wallets holding over 1 BTC is up significantly, indicating whale accumulation​. For Ethereum, transactions over $100k (a common whale footprint) spiked 18% in the last 24 hours, as 1,450 big ETH transfers were recorded.

It seems the smart money is positioning for upside. On-chain metrics like Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) also show we’re far from euphoric levels. Bitcoin’s NUPL is around 0.42, well below the 0.75 level that typically corresponds with market tops, suggesting we’re still in an early-stage accumulation phase rather than a blow-off top​.

All this is fancy talk for: the fundamentals (usage and holding behavior) are strengthening behind the scenes. In 10 years I’ve seen that sustained rallies need this kind of backbone – and we’ve got it now.

Volume and Funding Rates Signal Confidence

No bull run preview would be complete without checking the market’s thermometer: trading volume and derivatives data. Here too, we’ve got some spicy numbers. In the past day, trading volumes have soared on major exchanges. Bitcoin’s 24-hour volume is up by double digits – CoinMarketCap showed a ~38% jump in BTC trading volume, hitting about $42.6 billion today.

Ethereum saw a ~28% surge in volume on Binance, with 1.87 million ETH traded in the last day. When volume spikes alongside price, it signals strong conviction behind the move (as we saw when BTC popped ~5% in 24 hours, volumes followed suit). It’s the difference between a flimsy breakout and one backed by real firepower.

On the futures and funding side, which I watch to gauge trader sentiment, there are interesting shifts. For Bitcoin, analysts note that the average funding rate was actually negative over the past week – a rarity indicating a lot of shorts and perhaps “whale” hedging​. Ironically, that scenario often precedes upwards surges (shorts fuel rallies when they cover positions).

Sure enough, each time we’ve seen negative funding in recent years, BTC followed up with a strong uptrend as big players accumulated quietly. Now, as bullish momentum builds, I anticipate those funding rates flipping positive if they haven’t already. In Ethereum’s case, that flip has happened: the ETH perpetual futures funding rate turned positive (around +0.0069%) after a long neutral spell​, and open interest in ETH futures is near an all-time high at ~$21.9B. In plain English, more traders are betting long on ETH and willing to pay funding fees to do so – a sign of bullish conviction in the derivatives market.

High futures open interest plus positive funding can be a powder keg for volatility. With so many poised long positions, any upward catalyst could cascade into a larger move (think mini short-squeeze, but for longs – a flood of buyers chasing a breakout). It’s a dynamic I saw play out in past bull markets, and it seems to be brewing again. Even the spot order books are showing thick buy walls; one report noted strong bid support appearing around key levels (e.g. big buy orders stacked at ~$60K for BTC, according to Material Indicators​). The bulls aren’t just talking – they’re putting capital on the line.

To top it off, volatility itself might become an ally. We’ve been range-bound for a week or two, but prolonged low volatility often precedes explosive moves. With markets consolidating near multi-trillion market cap highs, some traders are eyeing Friday’s events as a trigger. (There’s buzz about tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report being a potential spark – but let’s stick to crypto metrics for now!). The key takeaway is that liquidity is flooding in and traders are positioning heavily for upside, which creates a fertile ground for a big rally if anything pushes us over the edge.

Crypto Twitter Buzz: No Euphoria, Just Excitement

What’s the vibe on the street (or rather, on Crypto Twitter)? In a word: optimistic, but interestingly not overheated. My timeline is full of seasoned analysts saying this run might just be getting started – and I agree. 

One prominent analyst, Crypto Rover, pointed out that we’re far from the crazed frenzy that marks a market top. “There’s zero Bitcoin euphoria yet. It’s stupid to think the top is in here,” he tweeted, overlaying a chart suggesting BTC hasn’t hit its cycle peak by a long shot​

That resonates with me. The fact that we’re on the cusp of new highs, yet the mainstream isn’t in full FOMO mode, tells me this bull run’s early innings might still be ahead. (I remember 2017’s peak – everyone from my barber to grandma was talking crypto. We’re not there now.)

At the same time, the bullish banter is definitely ramping up. Influencers and analysts with skin in the game are practically chirping with excitement. One of my favorite follows, Altcoin Gordon, just declared: “We are about to make life-changing profits. Are you positioned, Anon?” – talk about setting the tone!.

That tweet, which came with a spicy chart snapshot, went viral in trading circles. And it wasn’t just empty words; within hours of Gordon’s post, both Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a noticeable price jump as if on cue, and trading volumes spiked in tandem. It’s a reminder that crypto is as much social as it is technical – when the hive mind on Twitter gets bullish, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy in the short term.

I’m also seeing market sentiment indexes in a healthy zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is hovering around neutral-to-positive (low 50s out of 100, which is not extreme greed). That aligns with Rover’s “no euphoria” claim. We’ve got enthusiasm, yes, but not the irrational exuberance that ends bull markets.

It’s more like rational exuberance right now – folks are excited because the data justifies it. Even recent headlines are contributing to a cautiously bullish mood: for instance, optimism around Bitcoin ETF news, and even macro factors like tariff tensions easing, have given crypto a relative boost in confidence. But I won’t digress into politics – the key is that investor mood has improved without boiling over.

On Twitter, hashtags like #Bitcoin100K and #BullRun2025 are trending among crypto folks. Reputable traders are sharing charts highlighting the same signals we discussed – from rising exchange outflows to bullish RSI divergences. It feels a bit like late 2020 in that sense, when a groundswell of on-chain bullishness met positive sentiment and kicked off a major rally. If history rhymes, we could be in for a similar ride now.

So Be Ready!

Every metric I trust – technical indicators, on-chain trends, trading volumes, and even the pulse of Crypto Twitter – is aligning towards an incoming bullish wave for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It’s rare to see so many green lights at once, and it’s exactly why I’m writing to you on the eve of this potential breakout. Of course, nothing is guaranteed (this is crypto, after all). We’ll keep an eye on those resistance levels (BTC around $100K and ETH near $3.3K-$3.5K short-term) and watch for any overheating signals. But as of tonight, the Crypto Bull Run 2025 setup looks as good as it gets.

So, are you positioned, Anon? Buckle up – if these signals follow through, tomorrow might just mark the start of something big. I’ll catch you on the other side of the breakout with a full report. Until then, stay safe and happy trading!