The Avalanche price kicked off 2025 with a bang, only to hit turbulence shortly after. As of early May 2025, AVAX is trading around $20 – roughly half of its January peak near $44. In this article, I’ll break down what’s been happening with AVAX price action, on-chain network stats, and recent news to inform an AVAX price prediction for May 2025. Can Avalanche’s token break past its ceiling, or are we in for more sideways churn? Let’s dive in.

Avalanche Price Performance in 2025 So Far

Avalanche price action in 2025 has been volatile. After a strong start in January, AVAX saw a sharp correction in the following months before stabilizing in April. Below is a summary of AVAX price at the end of each of the past five months:

As shown above, AVAX started the year strong (rallying into the $30s) and then corrected down to the high teens. January’s early spike quickly gave way to profit-taking. By March, the AVAX price had dipped below $20. It appears that around $15–$16 became a firm support floor during the spring downturn. Since then, Avalanche has rebounded into the low $20s. The big question now is whether the Avalanche price can push past the overhead “ceiling” – a resistance zone in the low-to-mid $20s that has capped recent rallies.

Technical Analysis: Chart Patterns and Momentum

From a technical standpoint, I see both encouraging signs and lingering challenges for AVAX. On the bullish side, Avalanche’s chart appears to have formed a double-bottom pattern roughly around $15 in recent months. In my experience, a double bottom is a classic reversal signal – it indicates that sellers tried and failed twice to push the price to new lows. Indeed, after AVAX bounced off ~$15 for the second time, it started making higher highs and higher lows, hinting at a trend reversal. If this pattern holds, it could mark a medium-term bottom for the Avalanche price.

Another positive technical signal is the token’s momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AVAX is hovering in the low 50s, which leans slightly bullish without being overbought. In plain English, buyers have the upper hand but there’s still room for more upside before the market looks overstretched. I’ve also been watching the moving averages – currently, AVAX is very close to its 50-day moving average.

A decisive break above that 50-day MA would be a welcome sign that buying pressure is returning. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average (a longer-term trend gauge) is flattening out, reflecting how Avalanche’s earlier downtrend has cooled. If AVAX price can sustain above the 200-day MA, it would reinforce the case that the worst of the sell-off is over.

That said, resistance is clearly present around the $22–$25 zone. This area has acted like a ceiling for AVAX repeatedly. In late April, for instance, the rally stalled just above $22. I’m keeping an eye on ~$23 as a near-term pivot – that’s roughly where the last bounce peaked. Technical analysts often note that broken support can turn into new resistance, and earlier this year $25 was a support level that gave way.

Now it may take on the role of resistance. In short, the AVAX price needs to climb convincingly above the low-$20s to signal a true breakout. Failing that, traders could see the token continue bouncing between the mid-teens support and low-$20s resistance this month.

On-Chain Network Activity and Usage

Price charts only tell part of the story. I always look at on-chain fundamentals to gauge a network’s health, and Avalanche’s metrics have been a mixed bag recently. Early 2025 actually saw a surge in usage: the number of new users on Avalanche jumped by 120% from January to March 2025, reaching a peak of 45,000 new users in March.

This influx of newcomers coincided with a price uptick as well (no surprise there – more users can drive more demand for AVAX). Additionally, Avalanche’s active addresses and transaction volumes were on the rise in Q1, signaling robust network growth at the time.

However, the momentum appeared to cool off by April. Over the last month, Avalanche’s on-chain activity has pulled back significantly. Total transactions on the chain dropped nearly 48% in the past 30 days to about 227,000, and daily active addresses fell by roughly 37% to around 33,000 users. This tells me that after the Q1 excitement, fewer people have been using the network day-to-day in recent weeks. It’s possible that the broader market correction in crypto during that period dampened user activity on Avalanche as well.

On a more positive note, one on-chain metric stood out to me as strengthening: developer activity. Avalanche processed over 250 million smart contract calls in the last 30 days, a 21% increase despite the user slowdown.

 In fact, I recall seeing Avalanche’s developer community remain very engaged throughout the downturn. This increase in contract calls suggests that builders are still actively deploying and testing applications on Avalanche. For long-term holders, that’s encouraging – strong development activity can lay the groundwork for future user growth (and by extension, future AVAX price appreciation). Additionally, transaction fees on Avalanche’s C-Chain remain low (and are set to be reduced further per the roadmap), making the network attractive for users and developers alike.

Broader Market Events and Ecosystem Updates

No AVAX price prediction would be complete without considering the wider context. In terms of news and ecosystem developments, Avalanche has had several noteworthy events that could influence investor sentiment:

Major partnerships

Avalanche recently struck a partnership with crypto exchange Bitget to promote Web3 adoption in India. As a journalist, I see this as more than just a PR move – they are actually working with local governments on projects. In fact, an Indian district used Avalanche’s blockchain to digitize 700,000+ land records, some dating back decades. Real-world use cases like this can bolster Avalanche’s credibility and showcase its technology, potentially attracting long-term investors.

Network upgrades: The Avalanche team has outlined a 2025 roadmap focused on improving performance and usability. A major upgrade code-named “Etna” is aimed at boosting network speed and reducing costs. They’re also renaming subnets as Avalanche L1s and rolling out features to make it easier to launch new subnets (custom blockchains) on the platform. As someone who has followed Avalanche’s development, I believe these steps could lower barriers for projects to build on Avalanche, which in time can translate to more network activity and support for Avalanche price growth.

Regulatory and market moves

Intriguingly, Nasdaq filed with the SEC to list a Grayscale Avalanche Trust as an ETF (exchange-traded fund) – a move that, if approved, would open the door for traditional investors to gain exposure to AVAX. This is part of a broader trend of crypto entering mainstream finance. While regulatory approvals are uncertain, the very attempt signals confidence in Avalanche’s future.

On the flip side, global macroeconomic factors and crypto regulations continue to affect all coins, AVAX included. For instance, when there were macroeconomic concerns earlier in the year, Avalanche (like its peers) saw a sharper sell-off, falling below $20 amid those jitters. I keep an eye on Bitcoin’s trends and any big regulatory news because they tend to spill over into AVAX price movements.

Avalanche (AVAX) Price Prediction May 2025

Now for the part I’ve been building up to: my Avalanche price prediction for May 2025. After weighing the technical setup, on-chain data, and current news, I believe AVAX is positioned to challenge its ceiling in the low $20s this month – but it may not be a dramatic breakout. In my view, the most likely scenario for May is a gradual grind upward if bullish momentum returns. Specifically, I expect AVAX price to trade in the rough range of $18 to $28 for the month.

Base case, I see Avalanche inching its way toward the mid-$20s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see AVAX make a run to about $25 if buying volume picks up and the crypto market at large remains steady. $25 is a notable psychological level and roughly where the next resistance lies. With a couple of strong pushes, AVAX could break past its ceiling at $23 and test that mid-$20s zone. My optimism here stems from the fact that the token has already tested the lower bound (around $15) and held firm, suggesting downside may be limited barring any new shock.

However, I’m also mindful that rallies have faded quickly in recent months. For AVAX to break past $25 convincingly, we’d likely need to see a catalyst – whether a positive macro turn or a piece of Avalanche-specific good news (like a surge in usage or a major partnership announcement). Lacking that, Avalanche might simply consolidate. A more conservative outcome for May would be range-bound trading, with Avalanche price oscillating between about $18 (support) and $22 (resistance) without a clear breakout. This would mean the ceiling holds for now, and AVAX builds a base for a potential move next month.

My call

I’m leaning moderately bullish for May. I anticipate Avalanche will attempt to break its ceiling and could reach $25 by month’s end if volume supports it. Nonetheless, I expect AVAX to close the month below its year’s high set in January. In summary, my AVAX price prediction for May 2025 is a climb into the mid-$20s, with an end-of-month target of around $24 per token. This would represent a constructive ~20% gain from current levels, achievable if the technical and fundamental factors align. As always, this outlook is based on the information we have now – and in crypto, a single development can quickly change the narrative. I’ll be watching closely to see if Avalanche can finally crack that ceiling or if we’ll be asking the same question again come June.